AI BriefingModel Estimates US Will Become Net Importer of AI Tokens by 2028-2030
·2026.11.09 09:00
Key point
A model estimates the US will consume more AI tokens than it produces between 2028 and 2030, depending on data center cancellation rates.
Details
- US AI demand is projected to grow from a 66GW base in 2027, while tokens per watt compound at 2.9x annually, creating a break-even real token growth rate of ~2.5x per year.
- The US will become a net importer of tokens if domestic demand outruns efficiency gains, with the switch occurring between 2028 and 2030 based on data center project cancellations.
- If 45% of planned projects fail to connect, imports begin by 2028; with 20% cancellations, the deadline slips to 2029; even with 0% cancellations, the gap opens by 2030.
- Current AI demand is price-inelastic, with short-term GPU rental prices surging from $5 to over $13 per hour over the past two quarters without significantly reducing consumption.
- Physical constraints like gas turbine availability (sold out into 2030) and capital costs (64% of GPU-hour cost) are more significant limiting factors than power costs (5% of GPU-hour cost).
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