Q1 2026 Timeline Update (4-minute read)

We've updated our latest forecasts on AI timelines and takeoff speed. Based on analysis of data from the past three months, AI progress has been faster than expected, shortening timelines overall.

Forecasts for the arrival of the Automated Coder (AC) — the point at which companies can fully rely on AI in place of human software engineers — have shifted significantly. Daniel's forecast moved up from late 2029 to mid-2028, and Eli's forecast moved up from early 2032 to mid-2030.

The main drivers behind this shift are:

• Transitioning to METR Time Horizon v1.1 and incorporating the faster pace of progress
• Including data from the latest models such as Gemini 3, GPT-5.2, and Claude Opus 4.6
• Incorporating real-world market data, including Claude Code's rapid revenue growth (surpassing $2.5 billion in annual revenue just 9 months after launch)

In addition, the expected arrival of Top-Expert-Dominating AI (TED-AI) — AI that matches the performance of top human experts across all cognitive tasks — has also moved up by about 1.5 years.