🔮 The Current State of the AI Economy (7-minute read)

The generative AI economy generated $110 billion in revenue over the past 12 months, with an annualized revenue run rate exceeding $175 billion. This is the first bottom-up, deduplicated measurement analyzing consumer and enterprise AI spending from a full-stack perspective.

The Supply side—semiconductors, memory, power transformers, and other components for building AI data centers—is relatively clear through disclosed filings. Understanding the demand side, however, is far more complex. Private companies such as OpenAI, Anthropic, Cursor, and ElevenLabs account for much of the revenue, and they have no legal obligation to disclose financial information.

This research built a proprietary AI economic model to answer questions such as:

• How large is the actual market size?
• Is revenue continuing to grow?
• Is the revenue generated sufficient to cover investment costs?
• How will falling token prices and improving quality affect future economics?

To increase data reliability, the model is designed to prevent double-counting. For example, if a customer spends $1 on Anthropic and Anthropic spends 50 cents on Amazon, the overall market size reflects only $1, without duplication.

The research team draws on public statements from hyperscalers (Amazon, Google, Microsoft) and Neoclouds, as well as data from suppliers and customers. All estimates are based on models that reconstruct individual companies' P&L statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, and are designed to be Auditable through cross-verification with external sources.