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Predicting Rollout Errors in Diffusion Models

·2026.08.06 21:10

Key point

Bidirectional diffusion models estimate rollout errors using forward-backward round-trip discrepancies.

Details

A new study proposes a method to estimate cumulative errors during rollouts without ground truth in time-evolving dynamic systems.

A single conditional latent diffusion model is trained to predict both forward and backward directions by adding a time-direction flag. By leveraging the requirement that the system must return to its initial state after being unfolded forward for several steps and then reversed, the round-trip discrepancy between the initial and final states is used as a self-supervised proxy for actual rollout errors.

This approach is characterized by obtaining test-time error signals with just one additional round-trip rollout, without requiring separate ensembles, held-out data, or governing equations. The researchers evaluated the method on CELEBV-HQ videos and turbulent plasma field digital twins, reporting that the single bidirectional model outperformed two specialized models (one for each direction) in both directions.

The paper and code for data generation, training, and analysis are available on arXiv and GitHub, respectively.

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