Will Developers Be Replaced by AI

The current AI market is in a bubble stage where the technology's effects are overestimated, in line with Amara's law. Compared to Big Tech's massive capital expenditures, actual revenue remains disproportionate, and there is also a phenomenon where AI spending leads to workforce reductions.

However, just as the internet grew explosively after the dot-com bubble, AI too will create greater demand for software and more development jobs through the Jevons Paradox. The developer's identity is shifting from simple code production to that of a 'code creative director' responsible for system design, orchestrating agents, and verifying outcomes.

What matters is not the question "Will AI replace developers?" but rather "How will the developer profession be redefined?" Development work is divided into various domains, and the key is deciding what to delegate to AI.

As technology advances, the boundary of 'tasks that are easy to delegate' will continue to shift, but the distinction between 'what should be delegated' and 'what should not be delegated' remains a fundamental issue. Ultimately, delegating tasks to AI is akin to a process of task abstraction—hiding complexity and choosing which details one doesn't need to know.