AI BriefingOpen-source AI rapidly eroding OpenAI and Anthropic's market share
Key point
Open-source AI token share surged to 62% in two months, accelerating AI infrastructure demand.
Details
Over the past two months, open-source AI token share on the Vercel platform surged from 28% to 62%. This indicates that open-source expanded its share more rapidly than OpenAI and Anthropic, even though they accelerated their growth in July.
The proliferation of open-source AI is positive for AI infrastructure demand. While it lowers margins at the model layer, open-source tokens require the same level of compute resources as frontier model tokens. In other words, open-source inference is not 'free' and actually increases total demand.
The author predicts that closed frontier tokens will ultimately account for 15-25% of total tokens but capture 60-90% of the economic value.
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