#bayesian-inference

The latest AI and developer news about #bayesian-inference, with the original source and a short summary.

Anthropic researchers argue AI must return model distributions, not single fits, to provide scientific insight

Jakob Macke, Daniel Gedon, and Stefan Wahl argue that AI tools for science should return the full distribution of compatible models rather than a single optimal fit to reveal what data actually constrains.

·2026.11.06 09:00

LLM Probabilistic Belief Updates Diverge from Bayesian Principles, with Non-Bayesian Heuristics Performing Better

LLM belief updates diverge from Bayesian principles, and non-Bayesian heuristics actually demonstrated better performance.

·1·2026.08.28 09:00

Joint Embedding Variational Bayes

VJE probabilistically models non-contrastive self-supervised learning with a representation-space ELBO.

·2026.05.01 00:00

Why a 12-Year-Old Forecasting Paper Still Holds Up

**EMBERS** is an old model, but its way of evaluating future forecasts and fusing warnings is still valid today.

·1·2026.02.17 23:00