AI BriefingRAM shortage could last for years
Key point
The DRAM supply shortage could extend beyond 2027.
Details
Memory makers are increasing production, but even by the end of 2027, only 60% of demand is expected to be met. The SK Group chairman mentioned that the shortage could continue until 2030.
Major players like Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron are adding new fabs, but most of the additional capacity won't come online until 2027 or 2028. Only SK's Cheongju fab was mentioned as adding production in 2026.
Nikkei believes that catching up with demand would require 12% annual production growth in 2026 and 2027, but Counterpoint Research points out that actual plans amount to only 7.5%.
The problem is that new facilities are being prioritized for HBM (high-bandwidth memory) rather than general-purpose DRAM. Since HBM is used for AI data centers, the shortage of general-purpose DRAM for PCs and smartphones may not be easily resolved.
As a result:
- Prices for phones, laptops, VR headsets, and gaming handhelds are already rising.
- As long as AI demand remains strong, memory price pressure is likely to persist for the long term.
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