LEAP Panel Releases AI Industry Outlook: Data Center Investment Surges, Semiconductor Growth Expected to Slow

Amid the explosive growth of AI companies, the Longitudinal Expert AI Panel (LEAP) has released its latest forecast predicting the future trajectory of the AI industry. Anthropic's annualized revenue surpassed $65 billion as of the end of July, and OpenAI also reached $40 billion, showing a steep upward trend.

However, it remains uncertain whether this high growth rate will continue. Other companies have previously seen their growth slow down before reaching $100 billion in revenue after similar rapid expansions, and there are also several obstacles to infrastructure development. New York State has implemented the first state-level moratorium on hyperscale data centers, and delays in power connections and supply chain constraints are also factors slowing construction speeds in the US.

Key Forecast Items

LEAP panel AI experts and superforecasters made predictions in the following four areas:

• Semiconductor and software stock indices
• Data center investment in the US
• Investment in IT equipment and electrical/telecommunications structures
• Combined annualized revenue of OpenAI and Anthropic

Investment and Revenue Forecasts

The panel expects data center investment to grow rapidly despite the possibility of a moratorium. In contrast, investment in IT equipment and electrical infrastructure, which are related to AI buildout but cover a broader scope, is forecasted to show relatively moderate growth.

In the stock market, both software and semiconductor-related stock baskets are predicted to rise, but semiconductors are expected to grow at a somewhat slower pace than the sharp surges seen in recent years. Meanwhile, regarding revenue for frontier AI companies, superforecasters predict that the impressive upward trend of OpenAI and Anthropic will continue.