Semiconductor Memo: Supply Chain Inheritance

Phase 1 of AI infrastructure investment was relatively simple. You just bought the first bottleneck: GPUs were Nvidia, optical interconnect stocks, memory was Micron and SK Hynix. But now you need to read valuations and supply chains being pressed by non-AI factors, making technical understanding more important.

The core frame is Post-Traumatic Supply Disorder. Power and analog semiconductors, which had been pressed down by post-COVID inventory gluts, Chinese competition, and a sluggish EV/automotive cycle, are regaining pricing power as they meet data center demand. The focus is also shifting from in-rack components to out-of-rack power infrastructure.

Where the benefits are appearing first:

• Texas Instruments (TXN), NXP Semiconductors (NXPI): price increases rather than capacity expansion
• Murata, Vishay, Samsung Electro-Mechanics: benefiting from MLCC shortages
• Out-of-rack power infrastructure for AI racks: capacitors, inductors, power ICs, filters, transformers, UPS

The conclusion is that AI capex isn't creating a new supply chain but is instead directly inheriting the supply chain already laid down by the EV and solar industries. Nvidia's May 2025 explanation of 800V DC rack architecture also confirms that its technical foundation came from EV and solar.