SpaceX's Two AI Computing Strategies, Only One of Which Turns a Profit

SpaceX's S-1 filing contains two contrasting stories about AI computing infrastructure. One is ground-based data centers, which currently generate substantial revenue, and the other is orbit-based AI inference, which is aimed at the future.

The ground-based business centers on the COLOSSUS and COLOSSUS II clusters. SpaceX has signed a capacity supply agreement with Anthropic worth $1.25 billion per month through May 2029. This translates to roughly $15 billion in annual revenue, serving as a powerful source of cash flow generation based on the scarcity of AI computing resources.

The AI segment recorded $818 million in revenue in Q1 2026, but posted an operating loss of $2.5 billion due to massive capital expenditures (Capex) of $7.7 billion.

On the other hand, SpaceX argues that the future of AI inference lies in orbit, where solar energy and radiative cooling can be leveraged. It emphasizes that this will be a key factor in lowering cost per token, and that SpaceX has the technical capability to make this a reality.

However, the filing lacks specific explanation of how ground-based and orbital infrastructure interact, or whether orbital infrastructure could potentially undermine the value of ground-based assets.