CXMT Targets Micron-Level Production by 2026

According to the latest supply chain models from Citrini Research and TrendForce, Chinese semiconductor company CXMT (ChangXin Memory Technologies) is significantly expanding its wafer production volume, reshaping the global DRAM market structure.

Production Expansion Roadmap

CXMT started with approximately 75,000 wpm (wafers per month) in Q4 2022 and is proceeding with the following phased expansion:

• Q1 2024: Approximately 150,000 wpm (expansion of 17/18nm process)
• Q4 2024: Approximately 200,000 wpm (start of DDR5 production line operation)
• Mid-2026: Approximately 300,000 wpm (operation of three fabs in Hefei and Beijing)
• Late 2026: Approximately 350,000 wpm (approaching Micron's estimated 375,000 wpm)
• 2028 Target: Approximately 500,000 wpm (including Shanghai fab operation, approximately 15% global DRAM wafer share)
• 2030 Outlook: 750,000–800,000 wpm (up to 950,000 wpm under optimistic scenario)

Market Impact and Technical Limitations

In terms of Wafer Starts, CXMT is reaching parity with top-tier companies such as Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, but it still lags behind in terms of bit density. This is analyzed to be due to the use of DUV multi-patterning processes instead of EUV.

Meanwhile, as the existing three major manufacturers (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron) reallocate cleanroom space to HBM and advanced server DDR5, the standard general-purpose socket market for PC, mobile, and automotive applications is expected to be more exposed to CXMT's volume offensive.