OpenAI Projects $856 Billion in Computing Spend by 2030; Cash Burn Expected at $278 Billion

OpenAI's total computing and infrastructure spending through 2030 has been revised upward to approximately $856 billion. This represents an increase of about 43% from the $600 billion target presented to investors in February. Consequently, the negative free cash flow from 2026 to 2030 is projected to be approximately $278 billion, an improvement of about $27 billion from the May estimate of $305 billion.

Spending Structure and Financialization

Despite the surge in spending, the cash burn figures improved because costs are financialized through partners rather than being directly reflected on OpenAI's balance sheet. OpenAI lacks an investment-grade credit rating and must leverage others' credit.

• Nvidia: Negotiating to guarantee $250 billion in data center debt, pricing loans based on Nvidia's credit.
• Oracle: Executing data center expenditures exceeding quarterly earnings based on OpenAI's commitments, with CapEx reflected in Oracle's accounting.
• SB Energy: Receiving $5.5 billion worth of OpenAI warrants upon signing a 20-year lease agreement, converting capital expenditures into operating expenses.

Key Risk: Dependence on Revenue Assumptions

The most critical assumption to scrutinize is the projection that revenue will increase approximately 10-fold from the current $36 billion to $350 billion by 2030. Since the cash burn figure is not an independent forecast but rather the 'residual value after subtracting revenue assumptions from spending assumptions,' failure to meet revenue targets will cause cash burn to worsen exponentially rather than simply decline.

OpenAI raised $122 billion at an $852 billion valuation in March, but according to FT reports, funds are expected to run out around 2028. Therefore, it is highly likely that an IPO or major negotiations for additional capital raising will occur before 2028. However, these figures are internal presentation materials for securing deals, are not audited financial statements, and have already been revised twice this year.